Revue des sciences politiques et des affaires publiques
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Statistical Likelihoods of Sialkot for General Elections 2018

Choudri M and Noreen F

Elections are a social phenomenon that enables the society to promote good leadership which is an important dynamic process that reflects the credibility and validity of political agendas. The motive of this evaluation is to present with a preassessment on the political situation of Sialkot city for the General Elections 2018. Past statistical profile reveals the prolonged domination of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) throughout the series of past few elections, but the momentous development of Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) is considered to be defaming the former. Facts and figures of political ground of Sialkot have been collected and systematically organized by use of valid Statistical approaches of higher confidence level. A precisely structured questionnaire containing characteristic and confined ten questions regarding political choices was circulated within the different Union Councils for collecting data of subset of 5700 people. Data was manipulated using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and it came out to be reliable with the value 0.703 of Cronbach's Alpha. The overall results indicates preference of people to PMLN 12.1% more than as compared to PTI, only few Union Councils (UC) such as Model Town, Mubarak Pura, Rung Pura, Haji Pura, Talwara-Mughlan and Bonkin shows increased drift of 3.4%, 6.8%, 4.7%, 6.3%, 36.8% and 27.8% respectively to PTI in contrast to PML-N and the study also suggests that the literates of the community shows the rising trend towards PTI.