Journal d'océanographie et de recherche marine
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Abstrait

Importance of Ocean Heat Content for Cyclone Studies

Neerja Sharma and Ali MM

The physical process involved from formation to dissipation of any cyclone is very complex in nature. Thus, accurate and timely prediction of cyclone intensity and track still remain as challenging scientific problems. Though presently available cyclone prediction models have improved our understanding about many physical processes from cyclone formation to dissipation, some are still unresolved. The input parameters that used into the models as a source of energy for the cyclones need to be reconsidered. Model estimate the energy for cyclones as latent heat release through evaporation computed using only Sea Surface Temperature (SST). However, the energy in the ocean for cyclone is available in the upper layers of the oceans rather than in the skin layer represented by SST. Therefore we examined the importance of heat content of the upper ocean in estimating four important aspects of cyclones (i) pressure drop, (ii) track change, (iii) intensity and (iv) storm surge height. The results obtained during the series of analysis emphasized that the thermal structure of the upper ocean is more critical and sensitive predictor for cyclones compared to SST, which need to be incorporated in numerical models for better and accurate forecasting.